New Zealand is heading for bankruptcy. It's not going to happen overnight but by the end of next year, every economic indicator will be pointing in the wrong direction, unless radical new policies are implemented.

The Government's deficit before borrowing this year will exceed $1400 million.

For the following year, the deficit will hit an astonishing $2000 million.

Treasury has told the Government that it's not going to be possible to cover this year's deficit by internal borrowing,

And further, Treasury have told Government that this will result in increased inflation and demand for imports. Government ignores the needs of the country for short-term political expediency.

The response to the television advertising campaign for Government loans has been pathetic.

I predict we will have a massive devaluation immediately after the election - close to 25 percent.

Government departments are already recommending that this be done, only the Prime Minister and Treasury, who want other measures as well, are holding out as long as they can for political reasons.

In any case this will be no more an answer now than it has been before.

I also predict that the Government will try to collect more funds by increasing interest rates even further. But all this will do is force up private sector interest rates and the cost of borrowing for local bodies, which means higher rates for homeowners.

I also predict if National is returned New Zealanders will be hit by large increases in sales taxes. The consumption led recovery of the economy will then collapse late next year.

This is inevitable, because as the economy is stimulated, imports will rise, as will domestic prices.

Unemployment however, will not fall much because manufacturers are being cautious.

They do not want to take on staff this year and fire them when the downturn comes late next year.

They are opting instead to under-supply the market and are concentrating on making higher profits and import any shortfall instead of simply increasing production.

The situation next year will be grim.

Given present trends, by the end of 1979, we will have record unemployment, higher inflation and a rising balance of payments deficit.

The Government should have the guts to admit that what I say is true and act now in the interest of the country.

It's exactly the advice they have received from their Treasury staff.

It's the truth and the public is entitled to know the facts.

These are the short-term problems, but no Government is going to be able to solve them all at once.

It's just not possible. Fix one and you make the others worse. What we must do is look ahead, develop a long-term strategy and then stick to it. That's our only viable option.

Short-term tinkering will get us further into the mire.

The New Zealand Planning Council has proved to be just another planning disaster. It has been totally ineffective. What difference has it made to one New Zealander? It has become the great neutraliser of creativity; it soaks up new ideas and brings them forward in a bland way. Forget it do away with it.

If we allow present trends to continue, in a decade's time we will be hopelessly in debt; our population will have shrunk, taxation per head will have risen, production will be stagnant, living standards will have slumped, a large section of the workforce will be out of work.

The Welfare State will have crumbled and the nation will be despondent.

I am not a doomsayer, but I am totally convinced that unless the people of New Zealand can grasp the fact that our present difficulties are not a passing phase, then the slide will continue.

The responsibility for our plight cannot be blamed on any one person or group of individuals, but those in positions of influence must bear a major share of the blame and that basically means the National Party that has been Government for fifteen of the last eighteen years.

We have arrived at this point because for more than a decade we have ignored the warning signs.

We have become a 'Soft Option Society'.

Governments have taken the easy way out of difficult situations; instead of using resources carefully they have pandered to vested interest groups.

In fact, I believe New Zealand is being strangled by the actions of these vested interest groups.

Virtually every New Zealander belongs to, or associates himself with, a Trade Union, an Employers' Group, a Retailers' or Manufacturers' Organisation, a City Council or Hospital Board.

New Zealand is dominated by these sorts of pressure groups that pursue their interests in a totally selfish manner, regardless of the welfare of the rest of the community. It seems everyone wants just about everything.

Universities want more faculties, more Government money for buildings, more staff. Hospital Boards want bigger buildings, more expensive technology and more staff.

If no one said 'no' from time to time, we would have expensive cardiac units all over the country, competing for business. We would have container ports up and down the coast all with expensive loading equipment. We would probably have half a dozen international airports, and motorways criss-crossing the country, linking every provincial centre.

That's the way good old aggressive parochialism works in New Zealand. It's wrecking New Zealand.

As a consequence of parochial pressure, we have spent far too much of our resources on what can broadly be called 'infrastructure'.

We do need airport terminals, but they don't add to the wealth of the nation.

I very much doubt that one extra tourist will come to New Zealand because Auckland now has as brand new $31 million airport terminal.

I don't believe Wellington is getting any extra tourists because it now has a new international terminal alongside its very shabby domestic facilities.

It's dead easy to get everyone to agree that productivity must be increased, the volume of exports stepped up, and that belts must be tightened from time to time.

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